Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates.

Brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve.

Supply- and Demand-Driven PCE Inflation updates data on the contributions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation from supply-driven versus demand-driven components. This tool is intended ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

The Daily News Sentiment Index is a high frequency measure of U.S. economic sentiment based on lexical analysis of economics-related news articles.

Daniel Wilson is a vice president in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Regis Barnichon is a senior research advisor in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Wildfires have been a concern in California for decades. The intensity of these events has increased recently, with particularly large and destructive fire seasons between 2018 and 2021. Analysis ...

Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises ...

Watch the video Remarks as prepared for delivery. Introduction Thank you, Alex for that kind introduction. And thank you to the Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California and the San Francisco ...

Extreme heat decreases labor productivity in sectors like construction, where much work occurs outdoors. Because construction is an important component of investment, lost productivity today will slow ...