Current technological developments in a number of industries, such as the rise of artificial intelligence and innovations ...

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This paper considers why fertility has fallen to historically low levels in virtually all high-income countries. Using cohort data, we document rising childlessness at all observed ages and falling ...

The U.S. net foreign asset position has declined sharply since 2007 and is currently negative 65 percent of U.S. GDP. This deterioration primarily reflects a U.S.-specific rise in corporate asset ...

We develop a quantitative New Keynesian DSGE model with monopolistic banks to study the macroeconomic effects of introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Households benefit from an ...

We study the effects of debt-financed fiscal transfers in a general equilibrium, heterogeneous-agent model of the world economy. In the long run, increases in government debt anywhere raise the world ...

The price of a safe asset reflects not only the expected discounted future cash flows but also future service flows, since retrading allows partial insurance of idiosyncratic risk in an incomplete ...

In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter, the NBER Digest, the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, ...

We estimate transitory and permanent import tariff shocks in the United States over the postwar period. We find that transitory tariff increases are neither inflationary nor contractionary, and are ...

US regulators proposed the “Basel Endgame,” a long-awaited overhaul of bank capital requirements. The proposal aimed to bring the United States into compliance with international standards established ...

How should governments structure primary sovereign bond markets when investors face asymmetric uncertainty about default risk and total demand? Standard protocols either use uniform prices for all ...

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